Stocks rallied strongly last week in response to comments by Mario Draghi that signaled a willingness, a determination in fact, to engage in more monetary stimulus. In fact, Draghi seemed to promise - once again - to do "whatever it takes", offering to consider "a whole menu of monetary policy instruments" in saying that the ECB was now "vigilant". One [...]
While on the other side of the Pacific economists try to decipher what China has truly gotten itself into, over the Atlantic the Europeans are admitting that trillion is again not “enough.” As I have written repeatedly, the adjectives attached to QE depend on the tense. Ahead of time, peering into the unwritten future, QE “will be” powerful and able, [...]
On September 28, Mark Haefele, Global CIO at UBS Wealth Management, wrote at CNBC.com there was much more to the central banking offerings than currently employed. The implication, obviously, was a reassuring call to not heed any darkening outlook. Blaming that upon “overanalyzed data”, Mr. Haefele insisted that investors were becoming far too pessimistic given the potential monetarism yet untapped. [...]
Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe declared last week that Japan is no longer suffering from deflation the day after his own government statistics showed that Japanese prices declined for the first time since QQE began. That is actually great news for the Japanese people, though Abe and Kuroda at the Bank of Japan continually pledge to end the relief. Abe’s [...]
I don’t think Mario Draghi panicked, but China is as good a scapegoat as any at the moment. The ECB’s intended adjustment in the PSPP (QE) is cosmetic, but then again QE itself is pretty much only that to begin with. It seems pretty obvious given the desperate lack of any positive impact from it so far, and the very [...]
In April 2008, Nassim Taleb was becoming a household name criticizing the quant dominance in finance. Bear Stearns had just failed and the entire edifice of mathematical order was still breaking down, as the last bastions of credit default swap “supply”, the monoline insurers, were still rumored to be heading for insolvency (while the nightly news focused on whether that [...]
Recognizing the danger of overdoing it on Greece today, I think there is another important and complimentary factor that the uncertainty about default there is revealing. In addition to the economic re-awakening about how nothing much has really changed with Greece, including its fiscal impediments that endure despite its default three years ago, the financial theme that has provided such [...]
At his last news conference on June 3, ECB chief Mario Draghi issued his list of successes so far with QE in Europe. The program was only announced four and a half months ago, being operational only for two, but he was positive that it was already having its intended effects. "Our monetary policy measures have contributed to a broad-based [...]
Yesterday brought on an exposition on the death of currency, but it was only one dimension in that process. Owing to the orientation of monetary policy, especially under QE conditions, most attention is focused outward from short to long. The irreconcilably truth, as I put it, is that destroying time value amounts to depressing financial participation. Today we are very [...]
There is an irreconcilable tension that lies at the heart of every “extraordinary” monetary policy. It isn’t something that is talked about much, and in fact it is steadfastly avoided as if these were two distinct topics. Bringing them together amounts to “crossing the streams” (to use 1984-style metaphors) and tends to undermine the idea that in the most extreme [...]
Stay In Touch