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Outside of the pandemic defined as 2020 and 2021, this past quarter was the 5th best quarter for nominal GDP in the last 25 years. It was the best real growth quarter since Q2 and Q3 of 2014. The last 12 months has been mostly about services, here are the biggest contributors to YoY GDP: [...]
Jerome Powell has said repeatedly that the Fed's goal is to get rates higher and leave them there for an extended period of time. He believes that the mistake of the 70s was that once higher rates snuffed out inflation, the Fed cut rates too quickly and the inflation returned. I think the mistake of [...]
The seven deadliest words in the English language—We’ve never done it this way before. And that certainly applies to Baby Boomers whose prospects for retirement are different than any preceding generation. Many Boomers, those born between 1946 and 1964, have made their retirement plans based on their parent's generation. The World War II crowd [...]
The US economy is still stuck in the stall it's been in since early spring. Sometime in mid-March everything just seems to have gone into suspended animation. Interest rates and the copper/gold ratio stopped rising. Real interest rates (TIPS) stopped rising. The US dollar started falling. But nothing has fallen so far as to warrant [...]
Have we entered a new bull market? Was the 35% pullback in the S&P 500 in March the fastest bear market in history? Or is this just a continuation of the bull market that started in 2009, interrupted by a rather large correction? Bull markets and bear markets are about behavior, about the human emotions [...]
I can’t believe this is necessary, a sign of the times and a perfect example/explanation of how it got this far. In case you haven’t heard, President Trump has gotten into a Twitter spat with his predecessor former President Obama. For reasons that have nothing to do with legitimate economics (small “e”), both men are [...]
It is the inversion of the seventies. Four now five decades ago, the economy was caught in the grips of an inflationary condition it seemed unable to escape. It just went on and on, and while it was roaring officials up and down the spectrum assured us that they were doing their best, the only [...]
For the last five years Larry Summers has called it secular stagnation. It’s the right general idea as far as the result, if totally wrong as to its cause. Alvin Hansen, who first coined the term and thought up the thesis in the thirties, was thoroughly disproved by the fifties. Some, perhaps many Economists today [...]
All Presidents love to talk stocks when the stock market is making record highs. It is the one asset class the public knows about. Even the iconic 1980’s movie Wall Street made it seem just that important. The Masters of the Universe are buying equities, so everything has to be awesome. The BSD’s on Wall [...]
The holiday season was shaping up to be a good one, perhaps a very good one. All the signs seemed to be pointing in that direction, especially if you were a worker. All throughout last year, beginning partway through 2017, there wasn’t a day that went by without some mainstream story “reporting” on America’s labor [...]
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