A Marathon, Not A Sprint
Stocks rose last week, a breathtaking, nearly 20% run off the recent lows before a pullback Friday trimmed the gain for the week to about 11%. That was certainly helpful but investors would be well-advised not to get too excited. This is what bear market rallies look like. They come out of nowhere, they run much further than anyone thinks [...]
Vital Lessons Still Not Learned: Be Careful About GFC2
It’s one of those crisis-level-of-illiquidity things that if you heard about it in normal times it would make you shake your head in disbelief. During a full-blown meltdown maybe it’s not standard stuff, but given the chaotic conditions it doesn’t seem so preposterous, either. Negative convexity is an otherwise benign phenomenon in fixed income that when combined with a lack [...]
No Further Comment Necessary At This Point
I would write something snarky about bank reserves, but why bother at this point? It's already been said. If Jay Powell doesn't mention collateral, no one else does even though it's the whole ballgame right now. Note: FRBNY's updated figures shown below are for last week.
Collateral Shortage Goes Global, Hinting At The Way The (euro)Dollar Reaches Its Eventual End
Government securities have become so scarce that it is driving down repo rates. A collateral shortage that has become so acute, money dealers won’t part with their stock of government securities no matter what the price. Stop me if you’ve heard this before. Except, we’re talking about Japan and JGB’s here rather than UST’s. The trick is that both types [...]
Not Good: Eurodollar Futures Curve Sells Off, At The FRONT
If the Fed has promised to print an unlimited supply of money, then why are inflation expectations at crisis lows and falling? At the same time, there are still-growing signs of illiquidity and an interbank crackup. Bazooka after bazooka, yet they don’t seem to be having much effect. That’s true domestically but more so offshore. You may have seen references [...]
Three Short Run Factors Don’t Make A Long Run Difference
There are three things the markets have going for them right now, and none of them have anything to do with the Federal Reserve. More and more conditions resemble the early thirties in that respect, meaning no respect for monetary powers. This isn’t to say we are repeating the Great Depression, only that the paths available to the system to [...]
MAKING SENSE (podcast)
Joining me for my inaugural podcast to try to make sense of this GFC2 (and more) is my colleague and fellow monetary enthusiast Emil Kalinowski. We talk repo, collateral, and why there are only dudzookas from the Fed. It's also the start and tip of the ice berg for what we hope will become a much bigger project: an expansive, [...]
Collateral Shortage > Bond Vigilantism (and it’s not even close)
Faced with severe economic distress and a global market meltdown, they promised that it would be big. Massive fiscal “stimulus”, however, might come at a price. In the short run it was necessary, according to the orthodox view. When a crisis shows up you don’t worry about how to pay for things. Once all is said and done, the current [...]
Right on Cue, Low Money Rates Are Not What You Might Think
For several weeks now, the Federal Reserve has launched one bazooka after another. Officials there keep reassuring the markets, and the public, they’ve got an unlimited toolkit. However, the fact that they feel it necessary to keep showing you is a warning sign, especially how quickly each one is forgotten and overshadowed by the latest Big New Thing. The reason [...]
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