Today was a wonder to behold, Jay Powell performing at his absolutely most Volcker-esque. The biggest single-meeting rate hike since ’94, a triple-dipper 75 bps, all because the Fed thinks the US economy most threatened by inflation. Total seventies vibes. That’s not what invoked the myth, though. Instead, it was how just like his ancient predecessor, the current Fed Chairman [...]
Rate hikes weren’t even a twinkle in Chairman Powell’s eye, not really. Taper was barely on the table at that time, let alone double-taper or today’s rush into QT. Back in October, they all (correctly) still used the word transitory, therefore officials were taking their sweet time winding down QE6.With the Fed barely evolving from full-on – so it couldn’t [...]
It takes time even for a powerful eruption of deflationary money to get sorted into the real economy. Nothing goes in a straight line and even big changes don't just happen right away. The last time, Euro$ #4, it began early in 2018 triggering all kinds of financial disruptions and monetary fireworks. The same familiar indications, rising dollar, flattening and [...]
Markets got aggressive long before the FOMC did. Everything, and I mean everything, has been trending the other way. Jay Powell says inflation risks are most pressing when markets have consistently priced the opposite for a whole lot longer. It’ll be revised history when ultimately the mainstream attempts to write it over the months ahead, many will try to snatch [...]
While the world fixated on the US CPI, it was other “inflation” data from across the Pacific that is telling the real economic story. Having conflated the former with a red-hot economy, the fact American consumer prices aren’t tied to the actual economic situation has been lost in the shuffle of the FOMC’s hawkishness, with markets obliged to price wrong-way [...]
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun looks at whether investors have reached maximum pessimism and if now is the time to go heavier into the market.
Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. Warren Buffett People are always asking me where's the outlook good, but that's the wrong question. The right question is: Where is the outlook the most miserable? Sir John Templeton, The Principle of Maximum Pessimism I don't know if we're at the point of maximum pessimism yet but [...]
What changed? For over a month, the Treasury market had the Fed and its rate hiking figured out. Rising recession risks had been confirmed by almost every piece of incoming data, including, importantly, labor data. It is the jobs market where much of the official “inflation” jawboning is centered, all that Phillips Curve stuff. So, whatever might seriously undermine Phillips [...]
It wasn’t exactly a secret, though the raw data doesn’t ever tell you why something might’ve changed in it. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, confirmed by industry sources, US new car sales absolutely tanked in May 2022. At a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 12.7 million, it was a quarter fewer than sales put down in May 2021 and [...]
The BLS’s most recent labor market data is, well, troubling. Even the preferred if artificially-smooth Establishment Survey indicates that something has changed since around March. A slowdown at least, leaving more questions than answers (from President Phillips).That as much because of the other employment figures, the Household Survey. April and May, in particular, not just a slowdown but a drop [...]
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