Japan: Fall Like Germany, Or Give Hope To The Rest of the World?
After trading overnight in Asia, Japan’s government bond market is within a hair’s breadth of setting new record lows. The 10-year JGB is within a basis point and a fraction of one while the 5-year [...]
Not Bond Bull, The Bull of Bonds
In January 2018, Bill Gross was at it again. Famous for being the longtime public face of PIMCO, he’d acquired as much notoriety for being the boy who cried bear. By the way he talked [...]
Gifts of Wyoming, Complicating A Simple Story About Bears
Curiously short on star power, the Jackson Hole gathering this year has already taken an odd turn. It’s been practically subversive. Usually when the Kansas City Fed gets together for these things each and every [...]
Way Beyond The ‘12%’
It’s becoming fashionable again to dismiss manufacturing. In 2015, we heard repeatedly how it represented only 12% of overall economic output. Any minor problems affecting such a small slice would surely be nothing much for [...]
Did The BLS Just Find The Landmine? One-Fifth Of Previously Estimated Payroll Gains May Not Have Existed
The entire basis for what the Fed is now calling a “mid-cycle” adjustment rests upon a specific view of the labor market. There was weakness in consumer spending, there remains weakness in business investment, but [...]
The Fingerprints of Bumbling (China)
For a cabal of superpatient supergeniuses, the Chinese tend to play with fire quite often. According to many, the Communists have perfected the art of technocracy and are merely waiting out the impetuously free West. [...]
Monthly Macro Monitor: Does Anyone Not Know About The Yield Curve?
The yield curve's inverted! The yield curve's inverted! That was the news I awoke to last Wednesday on CNBC as the 10 year Treasury note yield dipped below the 2 year yield for the first [...]
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