A Lesson In Seasonal Bias, Or Be Careful What You Wish For
With today’s retail sales report “mixed”, the Atlanta Fed now predicts Q3 GDP will be less than 2%. According to its GDPNow model, the weaker retail sales report, particularly the control group that enters the [...]
Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Growth Expectations Rising?
Economic Reports Scorecard The economic data of the last fortnight was typical for this cycle with some reports showing improvement and others the opposite; "mixed" has been the most often used adjective of this expansion. [...]
‘Mixed’ Results For Retail Sales Aren’t Really Mixed
Retail sales in September 2016 were mixed, though what I mean by that is importantly different than what it used to suggest. Before 2012, “mixed” results in accounts like retail sales indicated that there was [...]
All Kinds Of Stock Market Irregularities
A great many asset classes have been moving almost perfectly sideways for months now. That is unusual by any standard, but more so given the circumstances of late 2016. This might be indicative of doubts, [...]
And, Predictably, Another Two Steps Back
If you are not an economist bound by dogma, or a member of the media forbidden from using opinion of all but the finest (sounding) credentials, there is no mystery. I am as tired of [...]
A JOLTS Plateau Would Be Meaningful
The JOLTS series is, in my view, a second tier data set made so by its computational connections to the CES. The Job Openings portion I believe has proven over the past few years why [...]
September FOMC: Do We Have The Guts To Actually Believe In Our Own Fallacies?
The US is awash in economic data that shows its economy isn’t close to matching the rhetoric of policymakers. FOMC minutes for the September policy meeting show largely what I have been writing for almost [...]
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