The BLS Intoxication Of Unreasonable Inflation Devotion
Woe to the unemployment rate. Without it so much confusion and angst might have been avoided, though admittedly that more realistic view would have been itself darker but at least clear. In August 2014, Federal [...]
Shallow Contraction Continues; IP Falls For 13th Straight Month
Industrial production fell another 1% in September year-over-year, the 13th consecutive contraction. With that, though the slope of the decline remains unusually shallow like almost every other economic account related to manufacturing and production, the [...]
Yellen: Maybe We Don’t Know What We Are Doing
In 1953, Milton Friedman wrote out what have been the guiding principles of modern, orthodox economics that were necessary should it wish to join the ranks of serious science. In his Methodology of Positive Economics, [...]
More Of The Same From Frankfurt
It is quite interesting that two pieces of likely interconnected news hit today about everyone’s favorite German bank. First, Reuters reported rumors that C-suite officials from Deutsche Bank alerted their HR to perhaps expect double [...]
Turning Again To Inflation Expectations
I generally shy away from sentiment surveys as almost a rule because I believe they are more often than not misleading. The various indices of consumer confidence fall into that categorization, especially over the past [...]
A Lesson In Seasonal Bias, Or Be Careful What You Wish For
With today’s retail sales report “mixed”, the Atlanta Fed now predicts Q3 GDP will be less than 2%. According to its GDPNow model, the weaker retail sales report, particularly the control group that enters the [...]
Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Growth Expectations Rising?
Economic Reports Scorecard The economic data of the last fortnight was typical for this cycle with some reports showing improvement and others the opposite; "mixed" has been the most often used adjective of this expansion. [...]
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