Welcome To Hell
Whether or not the Olympics in Brazil go off without any serious difficulties is actually an open question. There have been some athletes refusing to attend due to concerns over the Zika virus, while police [...]
Factory Orders And More Small ‘d’
Factory orders declined slightly year-over-year in May 2016, the 18th contraction in the past nineteen months (the only positive was February and its 29th day). On a seasonally adjusted basis, factory orders fell 1% month-over-month [...]
How Markets Are Supposed To Work
In a regime where math acts as money, there are a few major potential chokepoints where shifts in math can become systemically important difficulties. In 2008, the most visible example was in repo haircuts, but [...]
The Income of ‘Full’ Employment
In some contrast to spending or even “demand”, the economic problem is and has always been the lack of income growth. The difference in economy between income and spending is debt. As noted earlier, it [...]
Revisions Don’t Change The Great Dislocation
The final revision to Q1 GDP changed very little, at least in its natural format given that there are benchmark revisions coming in less than a month that could significantly alter all of this. Even [...]
The Warning Embedded Within The Interest Rate Fallacy
On November 4, 2010, then-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke wrote his infamous oped for the Washington Post “welcoming” the world to a second round of quantitative easing. The very fact that there was a second [...]
GDP Corporate Profits And Cash Flows Rebound in Q1, But Not Really
Accompanying the final estimate for Q1 GDP is the first estimate for the corporate profits and cash flow components. Profits rebounded from a dismal Q4, but that actually means much less than it sounds especially [...]
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