Wholesale Zombie
Wholesale inventories have ground to a halt, but since wholesale sales have also the inventory imbalance only continues midway already through its second year. Excluding petroleum, the wholesale inventory to sales ratio surged upward starting [...]
Two Times Was Convincing; Five, Maybe Six Times Cannot Be Coincidence
People are often mistaken for thinking the eurodollar is somehow related to the euro, but that is in many ways quite understandable. In reality, the eurodollar system is shorthand for a global, offshore monetary regime [...]
Woe To Seasonality
So much of the basis for monetary policy was put in place in the 1960’s study of the 1930’s. It has become commonplace simply to assume 21st century tactics as being directly lifted from the [...]
Maybe Not As Much Difference Between LMCI and Jobs Report
Even with the huge turnaround in the Establishment Survey’s headline number in June, the Fed’s alternate factor model could not manage a positive number. It was an improvement over May (revised), but nonetheless the sixth [...]
Magic Number Bias
As an outsider, it is difficult to gain the pulse of Japanese politics. Viewing it all only from an economic or financial perspective is immediately too narrow. There is far more than just Abenomics at [...]
A Closer Look: Market Cap
This past week, the S&P 500 Cap-Weighted Index ((IVV)) once again tested resistance at the 2100-2120 level, before finally blowing through to set new all-time highs for the market. It's been a remarkable rebound from [...]
Only Spreading Monetary ‘Tightness’
As an apparent consequence of post-Brexit uncertainty, the effective federal funds (EFF) rate moved up from 38 bps in “yield” to 40 bps, and then even 41 bps on June 27. That rather tame reaction [...]
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